Sarah

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__The Migration Situation__ __Question__: Are migratory birds affected by global warming??? __Hypothesis__:  I think the time the migratory birds travel might be a little different from 15 years ago, because every year the temperature varies so much it will give you a whip lash. But the birds will stay around in May-August. I don't think there will be some big gap during the warm weather season, due to some O-Zone Layer failure, from all the Carbon Monoxide in the air. That could eventually happen, but not in a span of only 15 years.

__ Variables __ There can be a few variables to data researching: Birds aren't always consistent, they don't always leave at the same time of the year, every year. Neither are people. They may not have gone out to record the bird sightings.

__What are "Migratory Birds"? __ Migratory birds, I'm sure everyone knows, are birds who travel due to weather. During spring and summer, birds stay in their original habitats. When it comes to fall and winter, they take a sky-trip down south, y'all! But not all birds leave during cold weather, sometimes they are more adapt to warm weather. In this case, Green Herons and Northern Bobwhites leave during cold weather.

__Process__ I will be doing a research project, focusing on the Green Heron and Northern Bobwhite! I'm using ebird.org and I'll be gathering information from the histograms of the entire region of North Carolina, going all the way back to 1 995.That's when you start to see the data come up. I will make my own separate graphs on the data I collect, going in 5 year increments, all the way up to 2011. The reason I chose the Green Heron and Northern Bobwhite was because they had nice migration patterns that would be easy to work with. They're also very pretty birds. This is the site where I got the Northern Bobwhite data: [] This is the site where I got the Green Heron Data: []



__ Green Heron Data __





__Green Heron Results__ Over a course of 15 years, the graphs are pretty consistent. Of course, some days vary, but you can't really rely on birds to be super consistent all the time. The graphs always peak in August and go very low in the winter, it definitely reflects the Green Heron's migration pattern. So global warming may have had a small effect on the migration pattern, but this was only a span of 15 years. Over a larger period of time, you may start to see some noticeable differences. In 1995, there really isn't much data, although June and August are the high points throughout all the graphs. 2000 and up is all pretty consistent, they're peaking in August and keeping that parabola form.

__Post Research Pondering __ What probably everyone will notice, is the fact that fifteen years ago, the graph shows that only two birds showed up that year. So I came up with a few possible scenarios as to why that is. ~It could have been the researchers who did not observe every day. ~The Green Herons' resources may have been depleting, causing more and more Green Herons to a certain spot. ~Or, the Green Herons' population is growing by great numbers. So I did a little more digging and found that Green herons were first seen in 1939. The first Green Heron nest was found in 1960. Their population is stable, but you don't see them flying around all the time. So they are of least concern, poplulation wise, and they're pretty secretive, so they weren't seen so often until they're population grew a little more.

__ Northern Bobwhite Data __



__ Northern Bobwhite Results__ Again, the graphs are mostly consistent. But there will always be some difference between the graphs because of a number of variables. In 1995, it looks like a significant difference, but it's really only three Northern Bobwhites. In 2000, there really isn't much there. 2005 looks pretty good. More birds are out in January and February than March and April, but only five to fifteen birds. 2010 is a little all over the place, but May, June and July are the high points throughout all the graphs.

__Conclusion__ Luckily, there is no O-Zone layer failure. But it's not perfect. There is a reasonably small difference between the first and the last graphs. It looks like a major difference, but really it's only by a couple birds.

__ Bibliography __ []

[|http://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/green_heron/lifehistory#at_consv]

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